Before we get started with this article, keep in mind you should never make financial decisions from a position of weakness, fear, or FOMO. You should also form your own conclusions as this article is purely speculative. Magic 8 ball type stuff – who knows. It’s literally my best guess. I would also like to say, I love AMPL and believe in its fundamentals. This is not FUD.
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OH MY GOD THERE’S BLOOD EVERYWHERE. ReEeeEEEbased. I’m just kidding. Well, a little. Things have definitely been red the past week or two. The above image is the AMPL 4hr view. We’ve been bleeding badly for the better part of 2 weeks. We’ve had some rather large whale buy orders here and here, which may be forming a sort of bottom around the $0.60 – $0.75 range.
One thing the AMPL bulls have in their back pocket is the rebase function. AMPL is constantly adjusting itself to achieve equilibrium at around $1. Whales, as well as you and I can speculate that buying under $1 is a relatively safe bet because of this fact. Eventually, at minimum, we will claw our way back to $1.00 and beyond.
Daily Data Analysis
In the bulls favor, we’ve had none stop green days when it comes to new wallets, Ampleforth Twitter followers, all Telegram groups, Sub-Reddit count, and transfers. If a project truly starts to die, or the community deems a project a scam, these numbers would not be going up. We would see people leaving AMPL Telegram, Reddit, Twitter followers, and even wallets decreasing. That’s not the case. The project is still growing despite market action / sentiment.
In the bears favor, the price of the coin itself has been getting slaughtered. Volume, market cap, and liquidity have been decreasing steadily since August 1st. I find it interesting “Le Pleb Ownership %” as @Sash would say, has been decreasing while whale ownership was initially stagnant but has been growing as of late. It’s clear the people selling are novice traders who are highly impatient. Keep in mind, just 16 days ago we were entirely euphoric making mad daily rebase gains.
Promise of big news
We recently found out the Gesyer would essentially be supported indefinitely, or for at least 10 years. This was not paid enough attention, in my opinion. In order for AMPL to succeed, it needs to have deep liquidity. In order to have deep liquidity, you need to incentivize whales to deposit their stacks into Uniswap and the like. Between the reward multiplier they offer, as well as the insane APY, this is not only bullish, but the best way forward.
Balancer / Compound Integrations
Back in July 2019, AMPL announced they were integrating with Compound. I have followed up with Brandon on this topic, I will provide an update inside our Telegram group for when he responds. Join here. Along with DeFi integrations, we had news recently that Coinbase was considering listing AMPL. Remember guys, it only takes one big exchange like Coinbase or Binance to list AMPL to surely kick off the next cycle. Especially after we’ve been bleeding / crabbing for 2 weeks.
Patience is key. Never make financial decisions from a position of weakness. That IS financial advice. Market Sentiment can flip on a dime. Go outside, read a book, play some vidyas, learn a new skill, work on a project – stay busy and stay focused. I still strongly believe in what the Ampleforth project is actively achieving, there’s no doubt in my mind. Sure the price action sucks, but the fundamentals are there.
I’m not selling, are you?